Unleash the puppies

September 11th, 2011

A tough Thursday has put a wee bit of humble into me… but not enough to dent my ever growing ego.  In week one we will stay with the statistical trends and play the lines…  regardless of the teams behind them.  Remember the >44 unders trend as well.  See the Picks page for this weeks selections.  Good Luck!

New Orleans vs. Green Bay 9/8/2011

September 8th, 2011

What a great start to the NFL season. Defending champs blah blah blah… we all know the drill.  We have been listening to the talking heads for the last month talk about a) the way Brees and Rodgers handled the offseason b) how the packers kept 8 tight ends and 19 wide outs c) how the saints will not have to run 10 gimmick plays per game to get Reggie Reggie Reggie his touches.  The long and short of this is to let the data do the talking.  If I were a data geek I would check how often the super bowl winner has covered week 1 since 2000 (7-2-2) and then look to balance.  It was a great roll but it is time…  this is too many points for this matchup.  I do like the Saints but not for the mortgage.  Here is another data tidbit… Week one O/U stats since 1999 say that >44 is 20-41-1.  Last year this went 2-4.  We will hop on the unders train for this and a number of other games this weekend.  New Orleans for 1 unit and unders for 2.  A word to the wise…  start saving for a five star college lock that I will post on Friday night

We are back, we are back, we are getting Doug back

September 8th, 2011

As one of the best lines in The Hangover states:  WE ARE BACK!  After 7 months off the NFL is back and after a season hiatus for the curveballs that life throws, Mr. Picksley is back as well.  The models are reset and we are ready for a big NFL season (with a greater emphasis of NCAA as well).  My esteemed college MC will be chiming in as well with fantasy picks and his take on the weeks lines.  Please check in on us from time to time to see how the season is going.  I feel a start to a 70% year.

Big Three Week 11

November 20th, 2009

We have some live dogs again this week.  Here are three that I feel have a chance to earn you some points in the weekly pick em’s

Buffalo (+10)

Seattle (+11)

Indy (+1)

The Big 3 Week 10

November 12th, 2009

These make me want to vomit but the data suggests these are the big 3 for this week:

Washington (+4)

Buffalo (+7)

San Diego (-1)

The only reason I posted these is because I have been hotter than Marissa Miller for the last three weeks.  If you are in the survival pool, rest assured no one else will have all of these.  On a side note (and equally rancid) I feel like Tampa is a live dog (+10) again this week.  Stay tuned.

Big Three Week 9

November 6th, 2009

Here are my weekly ATS picks for those in survival pools

Houston (+9.5)

Miami (+12)

Tampa (+10)

The Big Three Week 8

October 29th, 2009

As I stated in a previous post, a friend of the site requested that I post three of my covers for each week on Friday morning.  Mr. Picksley is a huge fan of those that log into the site and am happy to oblige.  This week I have three statistical plays revolving around standard distribution and “the reversal” theory.

The reversal theory is as follows… it is a high hit rate to bet the opposite (line and total) for divisional teams that have already had one outcome.  If you play all reversals you will come out ahead in weeks 8-16.  That said, here are my locks:

Green Bay-3

NYJ -3

BAL-3

Hotter than a pot of Ronald Curry

October 27th, 2009

Another night and another 4 unit hit.  I didn’t want to tell of you earlier that I liked the Eagles for all the wrong reasons because I wanted to make that no one doubted me.  When I say “all the wrong reasons’” I mean that the Eagles are not good (sloppy, too many flags, lost to the Raiders, et al) but the Redskins are a disaster.  Jason Campbell or Ron Jaworski?  I take Jaws not only because I want him to get hit in the mouth just one time but also because his football IQ is worth more than Campbell’s ability to throw the ball 89 yards downfield off one foot.  As my man Big Dumb used to say, “at that distance I have little accuracy” as he almost killed a bystander with an errant discus.  I thought it was evident that I made the right play when Bill Clinton Portis launched his helmet and removed himself from the contest with 12 minutes to go in the 4th. 

I digress… All I wanted to say is that it is great to a) reclaim my spot as king b) turn this ship around c) realize that the weekly log-ins have risen to seven.  Stay tuned for Friday’s 3 teams to watch and the week 8 PixCast.

77% Week 7 Is More Like It

October 25th, 2009

A blistering Sunday has put Picksleynation back in the game.  We knew that this week was coming and hopefully tickets were cashed.  The season total is up to 34-31 (minus any pushes) for a total hit percentage of 54%.  We are on our way to 75% for the year.  Stay tuned for more winners.  MNF winners will post tomorrow afternoon.

A Friday Special

October 25th, 2009

A good friend of the site made a request to post 3 picks every Friday morning.  So from here on out we will  be posting 3 “teams to watch” for the weekend on Thursday night.  Watch for them next week

Week 4 Recap and Monday Night Chatter

October 5th, 2009

Another mediocre day in Picksleyville.  Got off to a hot start hitting the Chicago and NYG over, and NE but fell short on Cincy.  A lesson learned about home dogs in the NFL…  All but the lowly Chiefs were covers yesterday (CLE, DEN, JAX, MIA).  The Lock Of The Week was a strong statistical play and will be once again next week as we will probably take the DEN/NE game over at an early line of 41. 

 For Monday night we are going with the under here.  A couple of reasons a) the under is 5-3-1 in the last nine meetings but is going over when the line is under 40.  Additionally both games last season went over so the reversal is coming. B) Both teams are 2-1 with the over this year c) the Monday night over trend is ridiculous and we at mrpicksley.com are looking to cash in on Monday Night unders all year

For those wondering why I didn’t play the line here is the simple answer… although this game will get high ratings and everyone is excited, it is a bad game on paper and the line does not make sense.  Although it is against a couple of number trends I think Joe Public is backing Favre too hard and the line is too much for a divisional game.  The Vikes haven’t covered at home since a PK in 2005.  We back the pack at +5.

Week 4 Preview

October 2nd, 2009

It is been a slow start for Pix going 12-15 (44.4%) units for the year.  This week we will change the tide with a great slate of games.  The lock of the week for 2 units is overs in the Den/Dal game (42.5).  Denver has not been tested this year but their offense is showing signs of scoring.  They are 0-3 unders this year and as my father always said, “if you think the dog can win the game its going over.”  There are other metrics that go into this pick but I am not trying to give away the keys just yet.  Also like the KC/NYG game over this week.  Look at the data trends for teams on their third road game in a row as it pertains to the overs.  The Giants will score but i think the chiefs will figure a few things out and get at least 13 on the board.  The ATS is showing that the games are a dead split with dogs and favorites this year.  We are waiting for some solid trends to develop but for right now you should ride the horses that have gotten you here.  For us that is betting against bad teams until they show something and steering clear of big numbers.  Best of luck!

MNF Tidbits Week 3

September 28th, 2009

A few trends to ponder (not all of my data work.. some extracted capper blogs)

- Carolina is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Panthers are 17-1 ATS as a non-divisional underdog vs. an opponent that allowed 28+ points in their last game.
- Carolina is 8-2 ATS as a non-divisional road underdog in September.
- The SU winner in Panthers’ games on Monday night is 7-1 ATS.
- Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last four games on Monday nights

-Dallas is 1-5 ATS on Monday night since 2005
- The Cowboys have produced 6 overs and 3 unders in their last nine home games.
- Dallas has produced 6 overs and 1 under in their last seven games after an encounter with the Giants.
- The Cowboys are 5-11 ATS as a home favorite on Monday nights.

-The over is 16-3-1 on Monday night since the beginning of 2008 and 3-0 this year

Take this for what its worth but there are a couple of trends that might be worth looking at

The season is off to a blistering start

September 25th, 2009

After two weeks of the NFL season I have played the numbers the way they should be played to a negative outcome.  For some players it may be time to pack it up but not this year.  The seasons trends are starting to develop and the time is right for picking winners.  I WILL achieve the 75% hit rate that I promised in week one and over the course of the next few weeks the unit play will increase as the probability gets stronger.  I am sure that if you are reading this blog you are familiar with Blackjack systems that encourage betting heavier when trends develop that provide player advantage.  Within that system you win and lose at first, but when the deck is right it is time to make money.  The deck is close and it is about that time.  Stay tuned for the turnaround!

Stay Tuned

September 21st, 2009

A recap of the first two weeks along with a ferw trends will be posted this week.  The year has started a little slow but I am still comiitted to the 75% hit rate that I promise to all of those in Picksley Nation.  Good data is forming and usually the next few weeks hold many winners as the betting trends start to balance.  Stay tuned for more!

Peyton is the king of the under

September 21st, 2009

Although betting an under is against all that is good in sports (actually cheering for no action), betting the colts under is always a solid play.  Historically, Peyton goes over when he is against the wall, not when they are a favorite.  You might find some interesting trends in the data if you play Peyton under when favored.  This trend is not quiote ready to be turned to the public but come week 8 I will let it loose

Not much in the early games

September 13th, 2009

The early games on the 13th don’t have much going for them.  I said in the PixCast that the Chiefs had multiple data points going for them.  Unfortunately, Cassel is a game time call and I still dont feel like the numbers do us justice with so many unknowns on this game.  The line has not settled and there is too much room to doubt.  I also discussed the Bengals in the PixCast but after weighing the data, once again there is to much room for error.  Our system is more predictable once the season is rolling and typically there is not much action for the first few weeks.  I have some winners for the late games and of course, the trends will reflect hot plays for the Sunday and Monday night games.   This is a test of patience and Mr. Picksley will wait it out to ensure winners.  Tune in for action on the late games.

The Steelers Are A Super Pick

September 10th, 2009

The season is upon us and it is fitting that our first trend ties in to the first game.  Our NFL Scores and Lines show that since 2000 super bowl winners are 7-0-1 ATS and 3-4-1 against the total.  This ATS number is a very strong trend and I am looking for it to continue one more year.  I have read meaningless posts from others that suggest that the titans current trend of 8-0 in September over the last two years suggests that they are the sure fire play tonight.  I challenge those handicappers to go back a couple of more years and see if that is a true trend or does it perhaps have the same probability of an 0-8 start.  Any way you look at it, I don’t feel like its enough to dethrone the champs.  This trend of Super Bowl winners also has some bearing on the loser…. details this weekend.



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